Back to School

The Skillman was gone, now it's back.

Let's not make a big thing about it.

Things I Still Like (Alphabetical Order):
Iranians (I was on this before you first Twatted, so FTW if you're gonna give me shit)
View My Blog
Wu-Tang and Affiliates

Things I Recently Like:
Alley Labs
The Awl
The Free Music Archive
Hanoi, Vietnam
Kasteel Rouge
Mr. Wrong

Things I Still Don't Like:
Other People Talking
Shark Biters
Tricep Extensions

Things I Recently Don't Like:
Skin-LessMax Vietnam



A new affiliated blog!

The Obama White House Chronicle

Check it out.


My Map

Here's how I see it playing out tomorrow:

<p><strong>><a href='http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/'>2008 Election Contest: Pick Your President</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the 2008 presidential election.</p>

Obama will win Ohio and Florida. It may take a while to find this out, Ohio will be very close, Florida may be easier to tell. But it won't matter, those won't be the results we need to determine the election. Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia will all go Obama.

Virginia: Has been solidly in Obama's column for about a month now.

Georgia: 31% of voters in Georgia cast early ballots by the close of early voting - that's 1.7 million out of 5.6 million voters. Obama will get a big boost from a large black turnout and depressed Republican base.

North Carolina: Also recorded enormous early voting turnout - 40% of voters voted early and 52% of those people were registered Democrats; 32%, registered Republicans. Unreliable numbers? Yes. But at that scale, I think they're good guides.

The Rest of the Map

McCain won't pick up Pennsylvania. Registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans in the state 4.4 million to 3.2 million. Most polls still have Obama in the +5% to 7% range in PA and I think that sounds about right. Without PA, McCain is lost.

The other big win for Obama - more psychologically than anything else, its electoral votes wont count for much - will be Montana where Ron Paul is on the ballot, and John McCain is not well-liked. Bob Barr, the Libertarian candidate, and Paul will peel off 7-8% of the vote and that will be enough for Obama to make a blue mark in Big Sky Country.

Arizona, I think, will go McCain.

When You Can Call the Race

Well, this is a little iffy. It really depends. Here are a couple thoughts:

The first polls close at 6pm; for the eastern portions of Kentucky and Indiana who splice themselves up for poll closings (this, btw, will be news to the fucktards at CNN who list the earliest poll-closings at 7pm on their website, which is wrong). Indiana could go Democrat, but I don't think it would be that portion of the state that closes at 6pm that would give the state to Obama, I think it's the portions in the West, that close at 7pm.

We could feel confident about calling the race by 7pm, though, if Virginia (likely to be known immediately after polls close), Georgia (I think we could know this quickly which would be a huge surprise but I think this goes Dem by a couple points), and Florida (unlikely that we know the results with any certainty at 7pm, but huge early voting turnout might help? tough to say) all post results within the first few minutes after polls close.

If not 7pm, then all eyes on Pennsylvania at 8pm. If Obama wins this, then the big push from McCain has failed and probably ended his shot. He still has other ways to win, but losing PA would be a huge, and hugely expected, hit.

But the possibility exists that this will be a very long night, again. Voter turnout will be enormous. North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri... all these states are keys to victory either way and they could all be close and/or have results delayed by massive voting lines. It could take a while to sort out.

But it'll be worth it in the end.

Krugman's On The Same Page

Paul knows the GOP goes postal after this thing, too.